One can definitely say writing up a mock draft is an exercise in futility—and a gigantic pain in the ass. Predicting where each player will be selected by which team turns out a rate of success comparable to a pitcher’s batting average. Even so, many jackasses, including myself, will churn out at least one mock draft each year, in order to pass the time during the most boring sports months on the calendar.
The real draft is 27 days away, so expect several changes to occur before the ever-so-slick Roger Goodell steps up to the podium and announces that the Carolina Panthers are on the clock with the first overall pick.
First Round
1. Carolina Panthers: LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson
Other than Ryan Mallett, whose stock has plummeted as a result of ugly rumors, there doesn’t appear to be a quarterback worth selecting #1 overall. In that case, new head coach Ron Rivera needs to take the best player available here, regardless of position, and Peterson has proven to be just that.
The Panthers already have a solid cornerback in Chris Gamble, but Peterson looks like a future star with the ability to make several game-changing plays on defense and as a returner. Despite the fact that a cornerback has never been picked #1 overall in NFL draft history, Peterson’s talent is just way too difficult to pass up. Carolina needs to restock its defense, and Peterson is the right player to get the ball rolling in the right direction.
2. Denver Broncos: Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus
Following Josh McDaniels’ disastrous tenure as head coach and personnel decision maker, the Broncos have to get it right in this draft. A great start to new head coach John Fox’s reign would be to select the best defensive lineman.
Dareus played defensive end in a 3-4 scheme at Alabama, but he has the body type and strength to make a smooth transition to defensive tackle in Denver’s 4-3. The Broncos need an interior lineman to take some attention away from defensive ends Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers. Dareus would fit in nicely.
3. Buffalo Bills: Texas A&M outside linebacker Von Miller
Quick, name Buffalo’s best pass-rusher.
Uh, never mind. Even if we gave you 24 hours you probably wouldn’t be able to come up with an answer.
Two years ago the Bills used the 11th overall pick on Penn State defensive end Aaron Maybin, who has proven to be perhaps the biggest bust from the 2009 draft, as he has yet to record his first sack in the NFL. To make matters even worse, Buffalo passed on Brian Orakpo, who was taken 13th overall in that draft by the Redskins and has dominated in his first two years.
So, yeah, the Bills need a pass-rusher for their 3-4 defense in the worst way, and Miller is rated as by far the best in this draft. Many will say Buffalo is in desperate need of a quarterback, and it is, but as hilarious as this may sound, head coach Chan Gailey really likes Ryan Fitzpatrick, so don’t expect him to bring in Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green
Carson Palmer can make all the threats he wants; the Bengals won’t trade him. On the other hand, they could formulate moves to make it more enticing for him to return to the team, and there’s no better way to do that than grabbing the best receiver in the draft.
Green has drawn comparisons to Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson. Some even have him rated as the best player overall in this draft.
Cincinnati needs to move on from the oftentimes ridiculous Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco/Johnson era. In that regard, Green is more than capable of helping the Bengals do just that.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Auburn quarterback Cam Newton
Head coach Ken Whisenhunt had a rocky relationship with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh when he was offensive coordinator of the Steelers, but he knows what a talent such as Roethlisberger is capable of doing, as the two won a Super Bowl together in 2005, and then three years later Big Ben led the Steelers to another Super Bowl triumph—while Whisenhunt was on the opposing sideline with the Cardinals. Whisenhunt is in desperate need of a quarterback, and Newton possesses many similar skills to Roethlisberger’s.
Although Newton was just a one-year wonder at Auburn, and there are some considerable concerns about his throwing ability, his immense physical attributes could lead to him being the dynamic leader the Cardinals want at the most important position in football. In addition, Whisenhunt is the right man to hone the young quarterback’s development.
6. Tennessee Titans (trade-up with Cleveland Browns): Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert
The Titans need a quarterback of the future, so they jump up from pick #8—ahead of the San Francisco 49ers, who also have a terrible quarterback situation—to take Gabbert.
With veteran Kerry Collins, Tennessee is in a great position to have a player such as Gabbert stand on the sidelines and observe for a year or two. Gabbert has all the tools necessary to succeed in the NFL, but he’s coming from a spread system and needs a substantial amount of time to learn how to be effective in reading defenses.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Nebraska cornerback Prince Amukamara
New head coach Jim Harbaugh is disappointed he wasn’t able to get Gabbert, but Amukamara is a nice consolation. The 49ers are very thin at cornerback, and Amukamara is rated as the second-best player at the position in this draft.
In order to bring the 49ers back to greatness, Harbaugh will be looking for high-character players with great work ethics. In that regard, Amukamara is an ideal fit.
8. Cleveland Browns (trade-down with Tennessee Titans): Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley
With new defensive coordinator Dick Jauron switching the Browns to the 4-3 scheme, Cleveland needs an impact player on the line, and Fairley dropping this far works out beautifully.
Fairley’s stock has dropped a little over the last month, as many were projecting him as the #1 overall pick not too long ago. Some have been discouraged by the fact he’s less than 300 pounds, but he showed he could take over and dominate a game much more often than Dareus did in college, and the Browns would be thrilled to build a defense around the Auburn product.
9. St. Louis Rams (trade-up with Dallas Cowboys): Clemson defensive end Da’Quan Bowers
Head coach Steve Spagnuolo was the man who started using four defensive ends on the field at the same time when he was defensive coordinator of the New York Giants. With Bowers dropping this far, Spags can’t help but move up to get the Clemson pass-rusher.
Veteran defensive end Chris Long finally showed some elite skills last season for the Rams, as he finished with nine sacks. In order to become a dominant defense, however, St. Louis needs another intimidating presence coming from the other side. After posting 15.5 sacks last fall, Bowers appears to be the best fit for the job.
10. Washington Redskins: Cal defensive end Cameron Jordan
Daniel Snyder finally has real football people making personnel decisions for him. General manager Bruce Allen and head coach Mike Shanahan have to know that their defensive line is one of the weakest in the NFL, so they’re thrilled to see Jordan fall to them.
Jordan’s stock has skyrocketed in the last few months, and with good reason. He was a dominant player for the Bears last year, manhandling some top prospects he faced, including Colorado’s Nate Solder. He’s also tested well in workouts, giving every indication that he’s the complete package. Washington needs that type of player at defensive end.
11. New England Patriots (trade-up with Houston Texans): Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones
After trading future Hall of Fame wide receiver Randy Moss at the beginning of last season, the Patriots limited quarterback Tom Brady’s options on the outside. Jones is rated by most as the second-best receiver in this draft, and some believe he’s even better than A.J. Green, so Patriots head coach Bill Belichick gets excited and makes a move up six spots to grab the Crimson Tide dynamic talent.
Jones has the playmaking ability to fill Moss’s void and open things up on the inside for slot receivers Wes Welker and Justin Edelman and tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.
12. Minnesota Vikings: North Carolina defensive end Robert Quinn
Stud defensive end Jared Allen has collected 40 sacks in his three years with the Vikings, so the trade Minnesota made with the Kansas City Chiefs prior to the 2008 draft has paid off. Ray Edwards has been a solid complement to Allen at the other defensive end spot over the last three seasons, posting 21.5 sacks during that time, but Minnesota could use another pass-rushing threat.
Quinn probably would go much higher in this draft if he hadn’t been suspended by the NCAA last season. In 2009 he had 11 sacks and 19 tackles in the backfield, and he possesses a wide array of skills that make him quite a scary presence for opposing offensive linemen. By grabbing the 6-4, 270-pound Quinn here, new head coach Leslie Frazier could get creative in using the rookie in certain packages with Allen, Edwards, and dominant defensive tackle Kevin Williams.
13. Detroit Lions: USC offensive tackle Tyron Smith
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford looked excellent last year—in the three games he played. In addition to the 13 games he missed due to injury last season, Stafford also sat out another six in 2009. So, it’s clear that Detroit needs to protect its franchise quarterback better.
Smith is considered the most athletic offensive tackle in this draft, and after weighing in at 307 pounds at the NFL combine a few weeks ago, he showed he’s able to compete at the proper weight, as he was among the most impressive prospects at his position in the drills. Although he played right tackle for the Trojans, many feel Smith would be able to excel in protecting the quarterback’s blind side. The Lions need the type of versatility and athleticism Smith can bring to their offensive line.
14. Dallas Cowboys (trade-down with St. Louis Rams): Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt
Owner/general manager Jerry Jones is thrilled that he was able to move down to this pick and still be able to select Watt, who’s one of the top five defensive linemen in this draft. The Cowboys are loaded with talent on their defense, but the defensive end position is in need of a huge upgrade.
Watt is the lunchpail type that can do the dirty work and help outside linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer make the big plays. Watt is also capable of teaming up with nose tackle Jay Ratliff to stuff the run.
15. Miami Dolphins: Alabama running back Mark Ingram
With Ronnie Brown uncertain to return, head coach Tony Sparano needs a workhorse ball carrier in his power offense. Ingram is the best running back in this draft, and he has the ability to carry the ball 20-25 times a game. In addition, Ingram has drawn comparisons to Emmitt Smith. The 2009 Heisman Trophy winner will most likely be an offensive rookie of the year candidate in 2011.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Purdue defensive end Ryan Kerrigan
The Jaguars shocked everyone when they took Cal defensive tackle Tyson Alualu 10th overall in last year’s draft. The pick was deemed a reach, but it turned out nicely, as Alualu had a very good rookie season. This year they play it safe by selecting Kerrigan.
In 2008 head coach Jack Del Rio thought he shored up his pass-rush when Jacksonville selected defensive ends Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves in the first and second rounds. They turned out to be huge busts, however, leading to such a gaping hole at the position. Kerrigan is a very reliable player who has the ability to put pressure on the opposing quarterback and come up big in clutch situations. That’s vital in a division that has been ruled by Peyton Manning for the last 10 years.
17. Houston Texans (trade-down with New England Patriots): Missouri defensive end Aldon Smith
After hiring Wade Phillips to take over at defensive coordinator, the Texans are switching to a 3-4 scheme. It’s a questionable move, as Houston’s best players on defense (Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing) are better-suited for a 4-3 scheme. Nevertheless, the Texans need to add more talent on the defensive side of the ball, and the best player available at this point is Smith.
Although he struggled through injuries last year, in which posted just 5.5 sacks, Smith was a monster when healthy. With pretty much no options at outside linebacker currently on the Texans’ roster, Smith is the type of player that could make an immediate impact rushing off the edge.
18. San Diego Chargers: Wisconsin offensive tackle Gabe Carimi
The Chargers’ offensive line has been one of the weakest in the NFL over the last few years. It just hasn’t been that noticeable because quarterback Philip Rivers is outstanding in evading rushers. Current right tackle Jeromy Clary is an overachiever who should really be a backup, and the Chargers have waited too long to upgrade the position.
Carimi is the ideal prospect to step in right away and take Clary’s job. The Wisconsin product is a mauler as a run-blocker, which will be helpful to a team that hasn’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since the 2008 season.
19. New York Giants: Boston College offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo
William Beatty hasn’t exactly shown he has the ability or strength to be a starting offensive tackle on either the left or right side of the line for the Giants. Meanwhile, current starting left tackle David Diehl is coming off a miserable season, and many believe he should be moved inside to guard. So, there’s an opening at left tackle, and Castonzo is the best man for the job.
The Boston College connection once again comes through for head coach Tom Coughlin. Castonzo will be counted on to be the franchise left tackle the Giants haven’t had for a very long time.
20. Chicago Bears (trade-up with Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Colorado offensive tackle Nate Solder
Quarterback Jay Cutler needs better protection, as he’s been running for his life over the last two seasons in Chicago, so the Bears make a move up to get the last remaining sure-fire first-round offensive tackle.
Solder, a former tight end, is a work in progress, but his size (6-8, 314 pounds ) and quick feet make many believe that he has the most upside of all the offensive tackles in this draft. The Bears made the NFC Championship game last season with a weak offensive line, so imagine what they could do if they’re able to solidify the unit.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Phil Taylor
With safety Eric Berry, wide receiver/returner Dexter McCluster, cornerback Javier Arenas, and tight end Tony Moeaki, the Chiefs had an outstanding draft last year, so the number of holes on the team was reduced by a nice margin. Now it’s time to strengthen the defensive line by getting a stud nose tackle.
After winning the division last year for the first time since 2003, the Chiefs must be powerful up front, what with the strong running backs (Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Ryan Mathews, Knowshon Moreno) in the AFC West. Taylor has the proper size and strength to play in the middle between former first-round picks Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.
22. Washington Redskins (trade-up with Indianapolis Colts): Temple defensive tackle Muhammad Wilkerson
The Redskins have never been shy about making moves to get the players they desire, so they have no problem moving up here to get Wilkerson, who’s rising up the draft boards rapidly, and keeping him away from the rival Philadelphia Eagles.
By double-dipping on defensive linemen, Washington sets itself up nicely for the future and makes it easier to move on from the Albert Haynesworth disaster. At 6-5, 315 pounds Wilkerson could play either end or tackle on the defensive line, and his college statistics show that he has the ability to be an impact player.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith
The Eagles wanted Wilkerson, but they’ll settle for Smith, who’s ranked by most as the third-best cornerback in this draft. Although there are some character concerns with Smith, adding him to a defensive backfield that has Asante Samuel and Nate Allen is worth the risk.
Smith is a dominant cover corner opposing quarterbacks shied away from throwing towards in college. That will change in the NFL, so Smith will have more opportunities to collect interceptions.
24. New Orleans Saints: Ohio State defensive end Cameron Heyward
After watching Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch complete perhaps the greatest run in NFL history against New Orleans the Wild-Card round last January, it’s easy to see that the Saints need to improve their defensive line. Heyward, a defensive end who could also move inside to tackle in certain situations, would be a nice addition.
Heyward struggled through injuries during his somewhat disappointing senior season, but he’s been known to step up in the biggest games, as evidenced with his dominant performances in the 2010 Rose Bowl and 2011 Sugar Bowl.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Illinois defensive tackle Corey Liuget
Head coach Pete Carroll won national championships at USC with defensive lines that were loaded with talent. The Seahawks have some talent on the defensive line, but they need an impact player.
Liuget, who one NFL defensive line coach has rated as the second-best defensive tackle, could be that impact player Seattle needs to take that next step towards building a championship-caliber defense.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Maryland wide receiver Torrey Smith
If free agency finally begins, the Ravens will be down to just Anquan Boldin when it comes to reliable wide receivers for quarterback Joe Flacco. Smith is one of the least known first-round prospects in this draft, but he has the athleticism, hands, and production to back it up.
The Ravens need to do a better job stretching the field and opening up the passing game. Smith is the ideal man to help them do just that.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Georgia defensive end Justin Houston
Defensive end Kroy Biermann has proven to be a reliable bookend to Jonathan Abraham, but the Falcons need to grab a dominant pass-rusher for the future. In addition to his stellar college career at Georgia, Houston has impressed many with his pre-draft workouts.
Although there are rumors that Atlanta wants to trade up for A.J. Green to fill the hole at wide receiver, moving up that far is just too costly for general manager Tom Dmitroff. Picking Houston here would add another young talent to a defense that already has emerging stars in linebackers Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon, and defensive backs William Moore and Brent Grimes.
28. New England Patriots: Florida guard Mike Pouncey
Head coach Bill Belichick loves players from the University of Florida, and Pouncey can fill the void that the retired Stephen Neal has left. Pouncey’s twin brother, Maurkice, had an outstanding rookie season with the Steelers in 2010. Most experts say Mike isn’t as gifted as Maurkice, but if Mike can have almost as impressive of a rookie season for the Patriots, this pick will be a success.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (trade-down with Chicago Bears): Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn
The Bucs have a very nice nucleus of young players, especially at defensive tackle. Now it’s time for them to add a pass-rusher on the outside.
Clayborn has a lot of issues, including character concerns and the Erb’s Palsy condition in his right arm, but if he reaches his potential in Pewter, Tampa Bay will be well on its way to once again possessing a dominant defense.
30. Cincinnati Bengals (trade-up with New York Jets): Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett
Fearing that some other team will jump up and grab Mallett, the Bengals make a trade with the Jets to get the rifle-armed quarterback from Arkansas. With Carson Palmer threatening to retire, in addition to his being on the back end of his career, Cincinnati makes the necessary move to get its quarterback of the future.
Mallett has received some vicious criticism, none of which has had to do with how well he throws the football. Toss all the rumors of drug abuse out, and he probably goes #1 overall to the Panthers, as he is clearly the best passer in this entire draft.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Miami cornerback Brandon Harris
The Steelers’ secondary is getting old, and it was thrashed in the Super Bowl by the Packers. With that in mind, it’s now time for Pittsburgh to add some young talent to the defensive backfield.
Harris isn’t a playmaker, but he’s proven to be reliable in coverage, limiting big plays.
32. Green Bay Packers: Mike Leshoure
Coming off a Super Bowl triumph with a below-average running game, Green Bay needs to balance its offense out, as defenses around the NFL are eventually going to come up with ways to contain Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack—at least on occasion.
Leshoure is the full-time feature back the Packers could incorporate into an unstoppable offense.
Second Round
33. Houston Texans (pick acquired from first-round trade with New England Patriots): Arizona defensive end Brooks Reed
34. Buffalo Bills: Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder
35. New York Jets (trade-down with Cincinnati Bengals): UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers
36. Denver Broncos: UCLA safety Rahim Moore
37. Cleveland Browns: Texas cornerback Aaron Williams
38. Arizona Cardinals: Villanova offensive tackle Benjamin Ijalana
39. Tennessee Titans: Oregon State defensive tackle Stephen Paea
40. Dallas Cowboys: Mississippi State offensive tackle Derek Sherrod
41. Indianapolis Colts (trade-down with Washington Redskins): Penn State center/guard Stefen Wisniewski
42. Houston Texans: Virginia cornerback Ras-I Dowling
43. Minnesota Vikings: Washington quarterback Jake Locker
44. Detroit Lions: Illinois linebacker Martez Wilson
45. San Francisco 49ers: TCU quarterback Andy Dalton
46. Denver Broncos: New Mexico State cornerback Davon House
47. Dallas Cowboys (pick acquired from first-round trade with St. Louis Rams): Oklahoma safety Quinton Carter
48. Oakland Raiders: Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick
49. Jacksonville Jaguars: Pitt wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin
50. San Diego Chargers: Iowa defensive tackle Christian Ballard
51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TCU offensive tackle/guard Marcus Cannon
52. New York Giants: North Carolina linebacker Bruce Carter
53. Indianapolis Colts: Iowa safety Tyler Sash
54. Philadelphia Eagles: North Carolina defensive tackle Marvin Austin
55. Kansas City Chiefs: Texas defensive end Sam Acho
56. New Orleans Saints: Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams
57. Seattle Seahawks: Florida State guard Rodney Young
58. Baltimore Ravens: Boise State wide receiver Titus Young
59. Atlanta Falcons: Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph
60. New England Patriots: Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas
61. San Diego Chargers: Pitt defensive end Jabaal Sheard
62. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (picked acquired from first-round trade with Bears): Clemson safety DeAndre McDaniel
63. Pittsburgh Steelers: Baylor guard Danny Watkins
64. Green Bay Packers: Miami wide receiver Leornard Hankerson
I love what the Texans did in this mock. Aldon Smith, Brooks Reed and Ras-I Dowling, also really love what the Eagles did by getting Jimmy Smith and Marvin Austin.
ReplyDeleteNot sure the Redskins would "double dip" on defensive lineman when they need a quarterback. Trading from the second into the first to get Wilkerson would cost Washingtons 2012 first rounder.